Monday, November 27, 2006

Hand selection

Yeah. Here I am again. I promised to print a hand selection chart. After thinking for a while, I decided to drop the idea, because charts are for losers. You have to use your feel to decide if you think you have the odds to enter the pot. I can't teach you how to acquire this feel. It's a matter of fact that the greatest Donkeys in the world has a brain that is designed to calculate odds based on very subtle sensing mechanisms. I could teach you some tricks that would help you to develop these mechanisms, but that is beyond the scope of this text. It's very complicated stuff. Instead, I'm going to teach you some other hand selection methods.

One thing that is very important is to check your horoscope when you get up in the morning. Astrology is a great tool that can be used to determine how to play at the poker table. The position of the planets can help you to predict if you're going to hit your flush draw, or whatever else you have to consider at the table. I told you earlier about the first time I lost my bankroll. If I had read my horoscope that day, it would never have happened. Here's what it said: "Don't trust your feelings today. A cosmic phenomena will disturb your senses, and result in poor decisions. This will not only affect your love life. You can't even trust your own judgment in financial scenarios. Do not invest any great amount of money, because you're destined to lose. Be patient. Your luck will be better tomorrow."

Now I'm going to teach you a more boring and less scientific method of making decisions at the table. Let's say that you get 72 of clubs. If your hand was offsuit, you should definitely play it, but this hand lacks some of the deceptive value. It's not totally unthinkable that your opponent might put you on 72 suited, because a lot of fish love to play suited cards (it's unlikely that anyone at the table actually realizes that you're in fact a Donkey, not a Fish). You have a difficult decision about whether or not to play this borderline hand. I'd say you should play it about 70 % of the time.

You have to use randomization in your play. It's not a very good play to play this hand 7 times, then fold it three times and repeat this cyclic behaviour. Any pattern in your play can be used by your opponents to their advantage. Here's a method that I use. It's based on some kind of mathematical stuff, and it's called game theory. You need some kind of random phenomena, so I suggest that you use a die. 4 is a pretty unlucky number, so if you roll a 4 vou should fold. Now you're very close to the desired 70 %, so you'll play when you don't roll a 4. But what about using some randomization about HOW to play your hand too? 3 is a lucky number. Everyone knows that. If you roll a 3, you should slowplay your hand. With that lucky toss, you're bound to get a good flop. You'll probably make at least bottom pair, bottom kicker (great against an over-aggressive idiot that missed with AK or something like that) or a quality draw (preferrably a gutshot, because gutshot draws are more deceptive).

If you neither roll a 3 or a 4, that's a sign that your luck is pretty neutral on that hand. You have to play your 72 suited aggressively. Raise preflop. I prefer to mini-raise. This is not because I want to see the flop relatively cheaply, as would be the case with pocket aces or that kind of hand. With 72 suited, you want action. The mini-raise will ensure that a lot of Fish enter the pot. If you're lucky, someone will mini-reraise and you'll build a huge pot. Go ahead and mini-reraise back and keep mini-raising as long as you can (This technique is actually very uncommon at real-money tables, but I see it surprisingly often when I play at play money tables). Play money isn't really my thing, though. I prefer to win the real stuff. Move all-in on most flop when you raised pre-flop. If you flop a backdoor flush draw, move in. Backdoor draws are really nice, because they're very deceptive. You should not delay the aggression until you hit the draw, because then your opponent might be able to get away from his hand.

That's all there is to it. I'll leave it up to you to figure out how to use game theory with the other hands you'll play. With the exception of 72, you should be very eager to play suited cards. If you flop a flush draw, you have a great hand. Don't be afraid of someone having a better flush draw than you. It's not very likely that someone has Ax suited when you have 93 suited, and if someone has Kx suited, you should be able to force him out of the pot with your aggressive play.

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